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Gold price rises 20 percent over year { January 1 2004 }

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Gold price rises 20% over year
By Kevin Morrison in London
Published: January 1 2004 18:37 | Last Updated: January 1 2004 18:37

Gold has defied expectations to record a 20 per cent gain for the second year running as it finished 2003 near a 13-year high.

The metal benefited from the slide in the US dollar against major currencies, with bullion prices peaking at $417.40 a troy ounce - within 31 cents of its highest level since February 1990. Bullion settled fractionally lower at $417.25/$417.95 in London trade on Wednesday.

Strategists expect gold to continue its run this year - possibly to a 20-year high. The metal's rise last year mirrors the magnitude of the dollar's decline against the euro. Many gold investors value the metal as a currency, and see it as a safe haven in times of economic and political crisis. But it is unusual for gold to show such a strong increase when the world economy is recovering.

Gold has risen almost 70 per cent since reaching its 20-year low of $251 per ounce in August 1999, a period when the metal was shunned and unfashionable beside the then sought-after technology and internet stocks. Its attraction as an alternative investment gathered momentum last year with the launch of gold-backed investment products from the World Gold Council.

Investors bought about 23 tonnes of gold in the first three weeks of the launch of the council's listed product - Gold Bullion Securities - on the London Stock Exchange.

Analysts said this was a good start, considering that investors only bought a net 125 tonnes of metal in 2002.

Gold traders said it looked increasingly likely that gold could reach $450 in 2004, possibly going as high as $500, a level it has only broken for a few months in the past 20 years.

However, gold was outshone in 2003 by other precious metals.

Silver gained 25 per cent, hitting $6 a troy ounce for the first time since May 1998. Many attribute silver's rise to the bullish sentiment in the metals sector rather than any increase in demand.

Analysts said demand for silver had been reduced by the fall in its use for photography, one of its main industrial uses, as more photographs are taken digitally. Platinum again recorded the biggest price gain for precious metals, advancing about 35 per cent, following on from the 24 per cent gain in 2002.

Platinum ended the year at $812 a troy ounce, short of its 23-year high of $858 reached on December 18.

But platinum's dramatic price rise - it has doubled since October 2001 - is starting to hit consumers. Last year marked the first in more than a decade that global platinum jewellery demand fell. xref Base metals end on high, Page 19


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