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Berlusconi appears headed for defeat { April 10 2006 } Original Source Link: (May no longer be active)
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2006/04/10/international/i112742D41.DTLhttp://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2006/04/10/international/i112742D41.DTL
Berlusconi Appears Headed for Defeat
- By FRANCES D'EMILIO, Associated Press Writer
Monday, April 10, 2006
(04-10) 11:27 PDT ROME, Italy (AP) --
Exit polls indicated Monday that a coalition led by center-left economist Romano Prodi, who wants to tone down Rome's strong relationship with Washington, was set to beat flamboyant billionaire Premier Silvio Berlusconi in parliamentary elections.
Two Nexus polls indicated that Prodi's coalition received between 50 and 54 percent of the vote in both the upper and lower chambers of parliament, while Berlusconi's coalition received between 45 and 49 percent.
Those surveys would give Prodi's coalition between 159 and 170 seats in the Senate, compared with between 139 and 150 for Berlusconi's center-right alliance.
The polls, which had a margin of error of 2 percentage points, did not give an immediate breakdown for seats in the lower Chamber of Deputies.
Dario Franceschini, coordinator of the center-left La Margherita, or Daisy party — a major partner in Prodi's coalition, was jubilant after the first exit poll was released.
"Italy has been waiting for five years, and deserves this moment," he said. "If the vote confirms these first exit polls, a strong victory awaits us."
Former center-left Premier Massimo D'Alema called the results "historic," saying they showed a "net defeat for Berlusconi and the center-right."
Paolo Guzzanti, a senator with Berlusconi's Forza Italia party, appeared resigned to defeat.
"The numbers can change a little but it is clear that the center-left has won and the center-right has lost," he said after the second poll was released. "It will be up to us to organize the opposition."
A telephone survey of 10,000 Italian voters broadcast on SKY TG24 TV yielded a similar picture as the Nexus polls. The Piepoli Institute assigned 52 percent of the vote to Prodi's coalition in the lower Chamber and 47 percent to Berlusconi.
The survey predicted that Prodi would control at least 340 seats in the 630-member Chamber and Berlusconi at least 277. Its breakdown for the Senate was at least 167 for Prodi and at least 142 for Berlusconi's.
The margin of error was 2 percentage points.
Neither poll sampled Italian voters abroad, who were electing 12 deputies and six senators.
Berlusconi, 69, a billionaire media mogul and the longest-serving premier since World War II, failed to jump-start a flat economy during his tenure. He founded a business empire that expanded to include Italy's main private TV networks, the Milan soccer team, as well as publishing, advertising and insurance interests.
He was battling to capture his third premiership with a center-right bloc — an often squabbling coalition of his Forza Italia party, the former neo-fascist National Alliance, pro-Vatican forces and the anti-immigrant Northern League.
Prodi, 66, was making his comeback bid with a potentially unwieldy coalition of moderate Christian Democrats, Greens, liberals, former Communists and Communists.
The currency and bond markets showed little reaction to the exit poll results Monday, which were in line with expectations.
Standard & Poor's Rating Services also reassured the markets by saying that Italy's election results would have "no immediate effect" on its credit rating. However, S&P warned that the long-term rating could be lowered if the new government does not present a coherent debt reduction strategy.
After five tempestuous years of Berlusconi — the verbal outbursts, the threat of corruption indictments, his support for the war in Iraq — Prodi gambled that Italians would go for staid and boring. One of his election slogans presented him as an average man who would bring "seriousness to the government."
One potentially divisive issue — Iraq — was largely deflated before the campaign began, when Berlusconi announced that Italy's troops there would be withdrawn by year's end.
Berlusconi had strongly supported President Bush over Iraq despite fierce public opposition to the war.
Prodi has said he would bring troops home as soon as possible, security conditions permitting.
He also promised a clear change of direction in Italy's foreign policy, raising his country's profile in Europe and toning down Berlusconi's strong relationship with Washington.
While Italians were mainly preoccupied by economic worries, the candidates seemed to focus more on insulting each other than offering comprehensive plans for boosting the economy.
Berlusconi promised to abolish a homeowner's property tax. Prodi said he would revive an inheritance tax abolished by Berlusconi, but only for the richest. He also promised to cut payroll taxes to try to spur hiring.
Critics contended that Berlusconi, instead of helping the economy, used his comfortable majority in Parliament to push through laws protecting his business interests and helping him in his years of judicial woes.
Berlusconi contends that the laws benefit all Italians and that he has been targeted by left-leaning prosecutors.
Berlusconi depicted Prodi as a front-man for Communists in a campaign to damage Italian democracy.
Italians were voting under a proportional system, thanks to a law pushed through by Berlusconi's government to increase the chances his smaller allies would win seats in Parliament.
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